FAQ

Why do you don’t offer a money-back guarantee? Most tipsters have one.

First of all, we are not tipsters. Second, we provide a simulation that allows you to try our system before you actually buy it.

Why do you sell your predictions at all instead of using them privately?

If our numbers were any good, wouldn't we be well advised to just use them privately and happily get rich on our own? Why on earth would we be inclined to disclose them and share our profits with half the world? So in the end, what compels us to make such a seemingly ill advised step to sell our predictions unless it's some kind of scam!

The truth is, there are some absolutely valid reasons to sell such numbers, even if they are not obvious at first glance. Our main motivation stems from the frustration with an almost monopolistic betting provider. We have become one of the top 0.1% of their most successful customers. Greedy as they are, they currently take about half of our earnings in the form of premium charges. Of course this is frustrating, which compels us to look for other ways of diversifying our business, even if this entails the commercialization of parts of our previously well preserved predictions. The other reason is simply that we have arrived at a such a high turnover that the profits are limited by the liquidity of the markets. It is an intrinsic law of the markets that placing more and more money will force you to accept ever worse prices. Finally, it is a matter of spreading the risk to try not to depend on betting providers and changing legislation but having alternative sources of income and creating a more robust business model overall.

How do I know, that all this seemingly promising statistics did not get manipulated?

Don't trust us, trust math and cryptography. Unlike many other tipster services we strongly dislike racing-index.com, since it allows tipsters to manipulate their recommendations until minutes before the race, and you never really know, whether even older, seemingly historical data was compromised, either accidentally or on purpose. What we do instead is hashing and timestamping our predictions every morning as soon as they are available. The hash is stored by different timestamping authorities and even incorporated into the bitcoin blockchain. That way, post hoc manipulation of our predictions is provably impossible. Any post hoc manipulation of the files by us or by third parties would produce a different hash, and any manipulation would be immediately visible.

What exactly is included in the abonnement?

Every day around midnight we provide new predictions for the day. The predictions are available as a CSV file for download and import into common bet processing software. We also provide explicit betting guides in the member section. For analysis and simulations, we also provide a second file at the end of the day, which contains all race results and Betfair starting prices (BSP).

How do I use the predictions?

Well, that's entirely up to you. We personally use them for automated betting, following a bunch of different rules and parameters. Automation is the key to keep personal fears and emotions out of your betting, and also saves your time from boring repetitive hours in front of the screen. There are a bunch of semi-automated programs out there, that support CSV file import, and you can set up your own filters and rules there.

What amount of profits can I expect?

That depends largely on your strategy, when to actually place a bet, and your activity. 30% monthly growth of the invested bankroll is something we frequently see ourselves. Though again, it has it's limitations in terms of available liquidity, which gives an upper bound to the amount of money that you can sensibly throw in. So, unfortunately it's no exponential growth, even if we all would love to see that.

Why are you better than your competitors?

Again, don't believe us, don't believe them, don't believe anyone who wants to sell you something. Do your own research, compare the offers and the quality of the predictions. Also, have an eye open and keep potential scam in mind. And we're quite optimistic that you'll want to come back to us afterwards. You also may find our comparison of all racing-index listed tipsters helpful, but then again, don't trust us, compare them yourself!

FAQ for active users

What is ThoroughBet?

ThoroughBet is the proprietary up-to-date scientific system which analyzes data of every horse, jockey, weather, state of ground, punter’s expectations and much more in order to predict the outcome of the every horse race in UK. In other words, we’ve created a tool that allows you to find the most advantageous bet by weighting the available odds against the horse’s actual chances of winning the race. We do not claim that our system can predict the winner of every race - this is simply impossible - or that you will win every time after following our recommendations - even though the percentage of the correct predictions of our system is higher than any other competitor's system. However, we do claim that using our tool correctly will make your profits exceed your losses by far. In order to get an idea and to assess the quality of our products, the simulation section allows to play around with the data, develop your own strategies and to run simulations of your profits if you were to use our services in that past. And of course, all our predictions are genuine and verifiable. Just jump to the simulation section and find it out for yourself!

Why it works?

Trying to pick a winner is like fishing in muddy water. If you’ve tried it, you know it isn’t easy. In essence, the present betting markets are so advanced that a high level of proficiency in statistics, probability theory and machine learning is necessary for success. We possess the necessary background – and thanks to this background, we’ve developed a sophisticated mathematical model that analyzes huge amounts of data using complicated statistical and machine learning algorithms. Over the past years we’ve collected a substantial data on horse races, both by buying them from services and by scraping them from various open sources. As a result, we have a fairly comprehensive picture on the races. At the end of this process, the system computes the winning probability for every participating horse in every race and compares it with the bookmaker’s odds in order to find the most advantageous bet with the highest expected profit.

If you still have doubts – and you should, as there’s an incredible number of internet scammers who promise huge winnings and non-losing strategies – be sure to check the archive section. There, we hash and timestamp our predictions every morning, as soon as they’re available. The hash is stored by different timestamping authorities and even incorporated into the bitcoin blockchain. That way, post-hoc manipulation of our predictions is provably impossible. Any post-hoc manipulation of the files by us or third parties would produce a different hash, and any manipulation would be immediately visible.

What is the Thoroughbet Estimate (TBE)?

It is our best guess of the odds that a horse will win the race. It is the result of years of hard work and research all put into a single number. If the TBE equals 8, then we think that the horse will win 1 out of 8 times.

What is the Market Price (MP)?

Apart from our own estimate, all other participants in the betting markets also produce their own guesses that are collectively represented by the publicly offered odds. We use the MP that is available a few moments before the race actually starts. For example, if the MP equals 10, then all market participants seem to think that, on average, the horse will win 1 out of 10 times.

The overall idea is simple: if our estimate is lower than the publicly offered odds, that means that we think that the horse has a higher probability of winning the race - thus we should back it. If it is higher, we should lay it (bet against it).

What are model and market coefficients?

The above idea has a little complication: how confident should we be about our own estimate? After all, millions of punters have their own ideas and sources of information about the races which are all expressed in the public odds. To let yourself guided only by your own opinion would therefore be too overconfident and foolish. What is needed is a superior estimate that combines your own opinion and everybody else's and weighs them appropriately. Those weights are the model and market coefficients.

What is the mixed estimate (MXE)?

It stands for mixed estimate which is the combination of your estimate (TBE) and the public market odds (MP). Of course, if you use public odds other than final exchange market odds, for example odds offered by bookies (Industry Starting Price), the mixed estimate will vary. However, the TBE is available in the morning and you can mix them with any other opinions that you get your hands at. However, if you use odds other than the MP, you may want to adjust the model and market coefficients. After all, a fool's prediction should be weighted less that a smart guy's one.

What is the expected return (ER)?

In order to know how much to place on a horse, we have to compute first, how much money we can expect to make with that horse for each pound placed on it. This is called the expected return (ER) and is computed by ER = MP / mix_est - 1 For example, if our final guess, the mixed estimate, is 8 and the MP is 10, then ER = 10 / 8 - 1 = 0.25. That means that for every pound bet on that horse we can expect to make a profit of 25 cents, on average.

What is the Kelly criterion?

Given our expected return and our bankroll, how much money should be put on a horse? Obviously, we shouldn't put too much money on one horse, since chances are that you will lose it very quickly as you bet repeatedly. On the other hand, we shouldn't put too few of it, since then we don't make much money. And further, the amount we bet should depend on the amount of overall money we have - the bankroll. Thus, we bet a fraction f of our bankroll computed as f = ER / (MP - 1) If the above example, if the MP=10 and ER=0.25, we get f= 0.25/(10-1) = 2.77%, which means that the Kelly criterion recommends to place 2.77 percent of our bankroll on that horse.

How to choose the final wager?

It is often reasonable to wager even less of what is recommended, which is scaled down further by the Scaling parameter, for example 0.5. If our bankroll is 1000 pounds, the wager on the horse is then 0.5 * 2.77% * 1000 = 13.88 pounds. If the Kelly fraction f turns out to be negative, the horse should be laid (bet against).