How to pick a good tipster

If you are new at sports betting or just suffering a losing run, it’s tempting to follow some well-regarded tipster. But the internet is full of people who promise mountains of gold with ridiculously high winning rates, but when it comes to the deal, their predictions fall short of your expectations. How do you sift the ashes from the cinders? Let’s figure it out!

The first thing you want to see is the tipster’s website. Nowadays, only the lazy ones won’t have their own website. The website could be pretty or ugly – that’s not that relevant. Design and usability has nothing to do with actual ability to predict the outcome of sports events. But, well, it’s much more enjoyable to work with someone who’s putting some effort in, isn’t it? However, it’s not as informative as you’d want. Good-looking sites could be the asylum of scammers, while a website with a 1990s design might be the base for a reliable expert. Turn your attention to the text - this is what’s most important. The tipster claims that he has an unbelievable win-rate? Then he’s probably embellishing the real picture, or is a scammer. Of course, it’s possible to achieve 70% (or higher) correct predictions, but usually it’s the result of a short run with only a few predictions, or simply backing the favourite strategy. Neither is good for punters: if the tipster has made only a few predictions, then he’s not reliable and you cannot estimate his skills, and if he’s backing the favourite every single race, you simply won’t earn any money. So, more predictions equals more credibility. Needless to say, if you spot a mention of “inside” information or contact - don’t waste your time. It’s a scammer, without a doubt.

If you heed the tipsters, then it’s obvious you’re looking for some profit. So next thing you should do is go to the next tipster comparison service and pick the one with the highest ROI. And that's when things start to become more complicated than they seem. Even tipsters with the highest ROI over the last year may be worthless; they might not provide any better advice than random coin flips. The story is like this: If you flip a coin hundreds of times and draw a line on a chart, moving up and down for every flip, when again you draw hundreds of those lines, some will end up well above zero, and others far below. Any of those lines, when you continue the experiment, may start to drop at any given moment. So picking the best-performing line still may give you nothing but a lucky coin flip.

So, what’s a better measurement for a good tipster? What you basically want to see is that it's not a series of random events, but some steadiness. If the tipster's backlog shows huge fluctuations, ups and downs like a horse tail, don't go with him. The smoother the line, the better. The longer the statistics, the better. Also, the more single bets that are contained in the chart, the better. It's easy to form a straight line of profit with just two dots. But the more dots you add to your chart, the better you can draw actual conclusions and not just observe random fluctuations. All in all, it makes much more sense to work with tipsters who provide estimates for every single horse and not just a tiny selection. It offers you wider range of possibilities and more options to place bets. And much better options for automisation.

So, only two criteria and you already can bolt out more than 80% of the tipsters. More to come! Let’s talk about proofing predictions. There are only a few tipster proofing pages around, and none of them is any good. It may be good enough to instantly avoid the most obvious crap, but not too helpful for actually finding good tipsters. Thing is that most of them modify or take out predictions, sometimes even shortly before the race starts. Considering that good tips should be available by early morning, tipsters who modify their results later on already have an informational advantage and can incorporate mature market odds into their predictions. Polishing them up, so to say. Also, often they provide so-called advised odds, which are not available at all. And even if the odds were not available, they're used to produce the statistical "analysis" of the tipster. Using some final market prices like the BSP is a better option, but be warned that the BSP pools are quite small, and you don't get the odds marketed as soon as you put more than pocket money in there. It's better to take odds some seconds before the market start, but that on average costs you half of the bid-ask-spread, making the betting less profitable than announced.

Also, you really have to trust the proofing service, and who in this industry do you really want to trust? Tipsters may try to pay for better ratings, they may set up their own tipster services with super-shiny ratings – and you'll never know. And from the perspective a successful tipster, why should you provide them with valuable predictions for free? Why don't they provide some API to provide your predictions in an automated way, etc.? Nowadays there are better techniques to provide proof of data transactions, and filing predictions in the early morning is exactly such a process. As long as there are no better indexing services around, successful tipsters have good reasons to refrain from dealing with such services.

Last but not least is the reputation. So you’ve chosen few tipsters who seem reliable, they’re not blatantly lying about their results. Google them! Check their Facebook, Twitter, mentions on web - sometimes this will give you some food for thought. And don’t fall for a large number of subscribers - it’s not that hard to buy them.

So tl;dr version: Don’t fall for those who promise the moon and astronomic ROIs, Google tipsters, demand a proof of tipster’s predictions. And if you’re interested in earning money with betting, consider ThoroughBet. We invite you to assess us with a critical eye. Horse racing is a game defined by large amounts of data, and even the smartest racing expert is no match for the power of sophisticated math and machine-learning algorithms. And now you have a great chance to jump aboard the train -ThoroughBet launches the beta-test in which you’re able to test most innovative tool for horse-racing predictions only for 1 euro! Hurry up – the number of spots is limited.